Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(2.2)
(806)
35,169
U.S. stocks considerable weakness during the trading session on Thursday,
Nifty
(2.4)
(259)
10,599
extending the pullback seen in afternoon trading on Wednesday. With the drop on
Mid Cap
(1.9)
(284)
14,392
the day, the Dow gave back ground after ending yesterday's trading at a record
Small Cap
(2.1)
(298)
14,126
closing high. The Dow tumbled 0.8 percent to 26,627 while the Nasdaq plunged
1.8 percent to 7,879.
Bankex
(0.3)
(73)
27,762
UK stocks fell sharply on Thursday after upbeat U.S. data lifted U.S. Treasury yields
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
to levels not seen since 2011. The FTSE 100 was down by 0.9 percent at 7,445.
Dow Jones
(0.8)
(200)
26,627
On domestic front, Indian stocks went into a free fall Thursday, with key benchmark
Nasdaq
(1.8)
(146)
7,879
indexes falling over 2 percent, as a slew of factors such as a surge in U.S. bond
FTSE
(0.9)
(65)
7,445
yields, rising oil prices and continued weakness in rupee sent investors fleeing
equity markets. The BSE Sensex was down by 2.2% to 35,169.
Nikkei
(0.6)
(135)
23,975
Hang Seng
(1.7)
(467)
26,624
News Analysis
Shanghai Com
1.1
30
2,821
Yogi government clears six biofuel investment proposals worth Rs 17 billion
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
527
299
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
2,128
1,480
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Unchanged
146
278
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
Top Picks
BSE
1,820
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
NSE
853
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
562
867
54.3
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
298
555
86.2
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
249
410
64.7
FII
(1,077)
(1,418)
(6,857)
Bata India
Others
Buy
866
1,243
43.5
*MFs
1,125
3,967
80,584
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
336
589
75.3
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
JETAIRWAYS
197
11.0
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
SPICEJET
68
8.9
Oct 05, 2018 US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
201.00
NLCINDIA
73
6.8
Oct 05, 2018 US
Unnemployment rate
3.90
PHOENIXLTD
549
5.5
Oct 05, 2018 India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
52.80
INDIGO
816
5.0
Oct 05, 2018 India
RBI Repo rate
201.00
Oct 05, 2018 India
Producer Price Index (mom)
-
More Events on Pg7
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
INFIBEAM
64
-17.6
HINDPETRO
221
-12.2
BPCL
336
-10.9
IOC
141
-10.6
CENTRALBK
36
-9.9
As on Oct 4, 2018
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
News Analysis
Yogi government clears six biofuel investment proposals worth Rs 17
billion
In a boost to its green energy roadmap, the Yogi Adityanath government has
cleared six biofuel investment proposals worth almost Rs 17 billion. These private
projects are proposed to be set up in 5 districts, including Sitapur, Hapur, Meerut,
Bareilly and Muzaffarnagar. These projects include a mega biofuel plant to be
15.5 billion. The company would use bagasse, a sugarcane byproduct extracted
during sugar production process, to generate biofuel. According to sources, the
company has tied up with the local Birla Group operated sugar mill in Hargaon,
Sitapur for getting bagasse supply for biofuel production. The Hargaon mill is one
of the largest sugar mills in UP with about 10,000 tonnes sugarcane crushed per
day (TCD) capacity.
The proposed biofuel plant is likely to utilise about 500 tonnes of bagasse per day
to produce 1,75,000 litres of drop in fuel, which does not need adaptation of the
engine or fuel system and could simply be mixed with other conventional fossil fuel
for combustion. The biofuel plant would be established under technical
collaboration with a Netherlands based company, sources added.
Economic and Political News
Corporate News
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
5,409
562
867
54.3
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
9,336
298
555
86.2
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,03,318
316
416
31.6
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
2,629
336
589
75.3
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,809
317
475
49.8
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,936
413
752
82.1
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,17,306
7,194
10,820
50.4
improve the company’s sales volume and
margins, respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,364
253
486
92.1
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in
NIM improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,659
744
1,071
44.0
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
24,479
111
198
78.4
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,095
249
410
64.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,32,811
1,961
2,350
19.8
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
98,865
795
1,050
32.1
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,888
918
1,230
34.0
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
11,130
866
1,243
43.5
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
24,846
1,095
1,764
61.1
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
18,502
191
327
71.2
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaulder
1,403
960
1,287
34.1
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
44,180
754
870
15.4
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
49,684
215
365
69.8
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
21,499
507
690
36.1
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
6,874
5,900
8,200
39.0
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,819
82
127
54.9
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
34,698
118
156
32.2
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,299
248
360
45.2
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,417
1,620
2,178
34.4
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,500
1,892
2,500
32.1
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,799
147
333
126.5
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
25,203
126
210
66.7
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Oct 05, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
201.00Oct 05, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Sep
3.90
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Oct 5
6.25
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Repo rate
%
Oct 5
6.50
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
-
Oct 10, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.90Oct 10, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.20
Oct 11, 2018
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Oct 5
4.00Oct 11, 2018
Oct 12, 2018
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
6.60Oct 12, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
9.80
Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00UK
Jobless claims change
Thousands
Sep
8.70Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.30
Oct 19, 2018
0-Jan-00China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
6.70Oct 19, 2018
Oct 25, 2018
0-Jan-00Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Oct 25
-Oct 25, 2018
Oct 30, 2018
0-Jan-00
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
3Q A
0.40Oct 30, 2018
Nov 01, 2018
0-Jan-00
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Nov 1
0.75Nov 01, 2018
Nov 14, 2018
0-Jan-00
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
3Q P
2.30Nov 14, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,429
(4.0)
5.6
2.7
Russia
Micex
4,327
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,515
0.7
6.1
14.1
China
Shanghai Composite
2,682
(1.5)
(11.3)
(20.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,441
1.7
(1.7)
1.9
Mexico
Mexbol
49,612
2.2
6.3
(1.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
937
(2.7)
(2.6)
(4.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,804
(0.1)
1.6
1.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,136
2.5
0.7
9.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,155
3.4
3.9
17.5
UK
FTSE
7,304
(4.0)
(4.3)
0.7
Japan
Nikkei
23,095
4.0
1.1
19.8
Germany
DAX
12,124
(0.3)
(5.5)
(3.2)
France
CAC
5,353
0.9
(1.8)
2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
31-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,235
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 05, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Source: Company
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
DISCLAIMER:
Angel Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay
Stock Exchange Limited, Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd and National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Ltd It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and Portfolio Manager and Investment Adviser with
SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research
Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not
been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its
associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered
by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
